This week, Alberta’s Chief Medical Officer issued an order concerning social gatherings in Edmonton and Calgary. This order, due to the revisions to the Public Health Act made earlier this year, is not a recommendation but is mandatory and can be penalized with fines if violated.
While this new order doesn’t apply to worship services directly, it would apply to all social events (birthday parties, wedding receptions, hospitality in our homes, and the evening we have planned for this Saturday).
The reason cited for increased lockdowns and restrictions is an increase in the case counts of COVID-19. It must be noted that such restrictions remove liberties explicitly listed and honored in our constitution. As such, the Justice Center for Constitutional Freedoms released a statement today that I would encourage you to read.
At Fairview we will continue the course we’ve already established. We want you to make informed decisions and will not mandate or follow orders that violate the commands of our Lord (including gospel proclamation, worship, hospitality, bearing one another’s burdens, fellowship, etc). Nor will we follow orders that violate the liberties afforded to us under God with the accompanying responsibilities given to the individual, the family, and the church. We will continue as we were before these recent orders were issued.
As Christians, we must be people of discernment and truth. In April, a release from the Alberta government predicted 800,000 infections with 400 to 3,100 deaths. There was a great concern for the safety of Albertans and severe outcomes from COVID.
Risk of Severe Outcomes
At this point, 308 Albertans have died with COVID. Death is a terrible reality that we all face and losing loved ones is especially hard. However, in making good judgments, the context of these deaths must be considered. Consider the following:
- Around 26,000 Albertans die every year. Which is an average of 500 people every week.
- Life expectancy in Alberta is 81.5. The average age in Alberta of someone dying with COVID is 82.
- With more than 27,000 confirmed cases, the death rate is 1.1%. This means that 98.9% of positive cases survive COVID.
- It’s well known that infants, school age and working age people are at extremely low risk for severe outcomes due to COVID.
- Most who die with COVID have 3 or more comorbidities. These are serious illnesses that carry the risk of death. Alberta health uses the following list: Diabetes, Hypertension, COPD, Cancer, Dementia, Stroke, Liver cirrhosis, Cardiovascular diseases (including IHD and Congestive heart failure), Chronic kidney disease, and Immuno-deficiency.
- Only 9 Albertans have died with COVID who did not have any of the comorbidities listed.
- Without the comorbidities above, the death rate drops to 0.03%. This means that 99.97% of infections without a comorbidity survive COVID.
- At the current rate of 44 people dying with COVID every month, approximately 528 people will die with this disease in one year. Compared to 2018, COVID deaths would be 11th in the leading causes of death and account for 2% of all the deaths in the province.
- In 2018, pneumonia and other respiratory diseases accounted for 722 deaths. This is greater than the projected number of COVID deaths this year.
- Some might argue that COVID results in preventable deaths since it is a contagious disease unlike most other causes of death. This may be a difficult case to make due to the average age of COVID deaths and comorbidity factors. Notwithstanding, COVID is certainly not alone in the preventable death category. In 2018, 308 people died from suicide and 833 people died from drug overdoses. In Alberta, roughly 12,000 babies are murdered in the womb each year (1,000 every month!).
This information should not be regarded as a minimizing of death and tragedy, but we must be informed with truth and correct information.
For more visual people, I’ve included a chart with infections and deaths with data provide from Alberta Health Services. It should be noted from this chart that the number of infections does not correlate directly to the number of deaths.
Hospital Capacity
Of course, death is not the only issue with COVID. Many are concerned with the hospitals’ ability to handle the influx of patience. In April, our province was ready with 2250 available beds for COVID patients with an ICU capacity of more than 1000. The call was to flatten the curve to keep the hospitals from getting overwhelmed.
At this point, the highest number of patients in hospitals in Alberta with COVID was 112. The highest number of people in the ICU across Alberta was 22. Alberta has not even reached 5% of their planned COVID capacity and only 2% of the ICU capacity has been used.
Alberta has not released the detailed information on hospitalizations so I’ve superimposed their chart onto the chart above so you can see infections, deaths, hospitalizations, and ICU patients in one place.
All the data for this email was sourced through the Alberta government. It is clear that even when infections increase (during cold and flu season) it does not follow that there is an increase in risk of severe outcomes, nor in overwhelming hospital capacity.
Christian Witness
Finally, and most importantly, as people of discernment, truth, and courage, we must not be quarrelsome but rather we must be people of love, care, joy, patience, and compassion.
“For the grace of God has appeared, bringing salvation for all people, training us to renounce ungodliness and worldly passions, and to live self-controlled, upright, and godly lives in the present age, waiting for our blessed hope, the appearing of the glory of our great God and Savior Jesus Christ, who gave himself for us to redeem us from all lawlessness and to purify for himself a people for his own possession who are zealous for good works.
Declare these things; exhort and rebuke with all authority. Let no one disregard you. Remind them to be submissive to rulers and authorities, to be obedient, to be ready for every good work, to speak evil of no one, to avoid quarreling, to be gentle, and to show perfect courtesy toward all people” (Titus 2:11-3:2).
May God grant you wisdom in all things.
—Tim Stephens